Eris Lifesciences, Torrent Pharma, Natco Pharma and Lupin are expected to see the highest contribution to FY2029E earnings per share from India's GLP-1 opportunity, at 4-12%, according to Kotak Institutional Equities. Sun Pharma is expected to generate the highest India Semaglutide sales among domestic players at around Rs5.4 billion by FY2029E, although its overall EPS contribution is expected to remain "miniscule".
In its latest report, Kotak expects India's overall GLP-1 market to reach around Rs157 billion by FY2032E, or around 4% of the Indian pharmaceutical market (IPM), with generic products accounting for around Rs99 billion. Including innovators, it expects 6.6 million Indians to be on GLP-1 therapies in FY2032E, compared with 0.27 million currently.
"The Semaglutide opportunity in India is unique due to a compressed launch window for innovators with the market still defining its boundaries," Kotak said.
Based on its proprietary Right-To-Win (RTW) framework, Sun Pharma, Lupin, Torrent Pharma, Eris Lifesciences, Alkem Laboratories, Zydus Lifesciences and Mankind Pharma stand out. However, despite the large market size, Kotak does not expect any single formulation company to benefit disproportionately from the India GLP-1 opportunity.
Kotak sees 6.6 million Indians on GLP-1 therapies by FY2032