Odds of a Fed rate hike at the Sept. 16 FOMC meeting surged from 48% to 86% in just one month.
August CPI at 3.4%, a hotter-than-expected PPI, and rising oil prices strip away any easy justification for the Fed to pause.
The real market-mover on Sept. 16 will be Fed guidance, specifically whether it signals one-and-done relief or further hikes that pressure equity valuations.
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Investors entered September expecting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold. Five days before the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting, that assumption has been turned on its head.