U.S. diesel hit a record $5.97 a gallon in September, nearly $2.51 more than January's price, with analysts seeing a path to $120 oil.
PCE energy inflation jumped 15.3% year over year, consumer sentiment collapsed to 55.2, and retail sales fell 0.6% in July.
If Iran retaliates near Hormuz or a Gulf Coast refinery trips offline in October, diesel could surge past $7 and lift grocery prices with it.
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The number on the truck stop pump is doing something it has never done before. U.S. retail diesel hit $5.97 a gallon in the week ending September 7, a record and a 11.6% jump from a month earlier. In January, the same gallon cost $3.46. Nine months later, freight operators are paying nearly two dollars more to move the same pallet of cereal, chicken, or lumber. That cost rides off the truck and into every warehouse, grocery aisle, and construction site in the country, arriving just as the fall peak-demand season begins.