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Snap (SNAP) has slipped about 10% from its late-August high to around $5.31, and the reflex is to call it an entry point. The company underneath is healthier than the chart implies, but this stock has a long record of sharp falls, and what usually followed them is not encouraging. Snap is also funding Specs, a hardware bet whose payoff management puts years away. Start with the falls.
Since 2017, Snap has fallen 20% or more inside 30 trading days on 20 separate occasions. Of the 18 with a full year behind them, 5 ended higher twelve months later, and the median outcome was a 22% loss. The two most recent are less than a year old.
Historically, a bounce frequently followed—reaching a median peak gain of 44% within the year—though past performance is no guarantee of future recoveries, reached after a median of about 128 days. Keeping it was the hard part: the median buyer sat through a further 44% decline along the way. Snap has offered dip buyers a rally to sell, and more often a worse price a year later.
SNAP had 20 events since 3/2/2017 where the dip threshold of -20% within 30 days was triggered