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Polymarket prices an 83% chance of a September 16 Fed hike, meaning a delivered 25 basis point move may barely rattle Bitcoin or XRP.
Bitcoin's correlation to rate-sensitive assets is at a record high, and XRP historically swings even harder than Bitcoin on Fed decision days.
The 18% hold scenario carries the biggest price surprise potential, as an unexpected pause would remove the tighter policy already baked into both coins.
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