China will play a pivotal role in deciding whether oil prices sustain this week's rally and potentially test wartime highs.
The U.S. crude oil price on Thursday topped $102 per barrel for its highest close since May. The futures contract surged about 50% from its summer low of $68.55 reached about three weeks after Washington and Tehran signed their now failed memorandum of understanding on June 17.
This week's rally comes as fighting sharply escalated in the Middle East with Saudi Arabia's crucial East-West oil pipeline shut down after multiple attacks.
The oil market has gradually restored a risk premium since the MOU collapsed and the U.S. reimposed its naval blockade of Iran in July, said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy. But U.S. crude prices are still well below their April 7 wartime closing high of $112.95.
While the market has priced in the escalation in Middle East fighting, it may not have fully considered China increasing its imports, said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth.