Whoever wins Sweden's general election on Sunday will face an unusually difficult financial equation with a structurally higher defense bill, growing demands on the welfare state as well as shrinking room to pay for both.
That challenge comes as Russia's war in Ukraine grinds through its fifth year, and uncertainty over U.S. President Donald Trump's commitment to European security adds pressure on the continent to shoulder more of its own defense burden.
Yet neither Russia nor Trump has featured prominently in the election campaign. Instead, voters have focused largely on domestic concerns including health care, schools and household finances, even as economists warn that the next government will have considerably less room to deliver on its promises.
"We do see a lot of election promises, like we usually do in an election campaign," SEB Chief Economist Jens Magnusson told CNBC. "But I do think that it will be a rather hard crash when these promises meet with the reality after the election."
While domestic issues dominate the vote, the next government will inherit fiscal and security commitments that leave it with limited room to maneuver.