d OECD commercial oil inventories have “barely drawn since the war began,” reflecting a smaller-than-expected supply deficit and the concentration of inventory declines in strategic reserves, oil stored on water and China.

Goldman also assumes that Middle East oil supplies will continue to adapt, with production gradually recovering during the second half of 2027 as pipelines become operational.

The strategists said low visible global oil inventories and low OECD strategic reserve levels do not necessarily indicate an imminent increase in prices. When visible global inventories reached an all-time low in November 2024, Brent was trading at $76 per barrel.

Goldman estimated that global landed oil inventories have declined to 8.6 billion barrels from 9.1 billion barrels before the war, but remain above estimates for minimum operational storage.

The bank also expects price-sensitive Chinese crude imports, which are about 30% lower year over year, to limit potential price increases.

Goldman said risks to its forecasts remain "significantly tilted to the upside on net, especially near-term."