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Investing.com - A hotter-than-expected core inflation reading on Friday pushed the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week to 85%, up sharply from roughly 70% before the report.
"With core CPI running hotter than consensus on a monthly basis, and accelerated from July's pace, we now think this would tip most FOMC members over in favour of a hike in the upcoming FOMC meeting next week," CIBC Economics economist Helen Lao said in a flash note.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% in August, topping the 0.2% consensus forecast. Headline CPI climbed 0.4% for the month, in line with expectations, as gasoline prices rebounded after two consecutive monthly declines. Year-on-year, headline inflation held steady at 3.4%, while core CPI eased slightly to 2.4% from 2.5% in July.
The data lands five days before the Federal Open Market Committee convenes for its September 15-16 meeting — a session that markets now widely expect to produce the first rate increase since July 2023.